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Showing posts from May, 2022

My notes from " All I want to know is where I'm going to die. So I'll never go there"

  "Big life issues like choosing the right spouse, education, career, friends, a place to live, investment, or taking care of your health. A wrong choice in these matters may haunt you a long, long time or may even 'kill' you."  • "A lot of success in life and business comes from knowing what you want to avoid: early death, a bad marriage , etc. Just avoid things like racing trains to the crossing, doing cocaine, etc. Develop good mental habits. .. Avoid evil, particularly if they're attractive members of the opposite sex."  • "You should make the right decisions, and one of the most important decisions you will make in your life is choosing a good spouse. You need everything to be stable, and if that decision isn't good, it may affect every other decision in life, including your business decisions."  • Old saying: If you want to be happy in marriage, improve yourself as a spouse before you try to improve your spouse's qualities as a ...

Things which you cannot buy with "Money"

It is irrefutable that parents always teach their children the value of money. Money is scared not because of natural availability but because of what RBI is making. Money is your productivity, which doesn't mean that hard work. You won't be satisfied with employee because you are providing 5x the work to get x amount of money. All these things teach us the value of money. But actually, people forget that humans are satisfied with respect, trust, love, security, comfort, and health (mental and physical), which you can't buy with money.                    Whatever relationship you have, whether boss-employee, husband-wife, respect is a must-have ingredient for that. The problem is that we do not have any measurements to value. Therefore, people underestimate the respect part.                    Trust is built when your words are reflected in your actions. It takes time. People don't unders...

FAANG

  This is a popular short name for the world's largest companies (F=facebook, A=Apple, A=Amazon, N=Netflix, G=google). I believe that they are not providing us basic needs in life. If we stay away from that, then we can save a lot of money, time, and attention, and, more importantly, we can save our economy.                 Facebook is  much more costly as attention and time. Amazon is costly as extra shopping or marketing. Google is costly as retained knowledge. and Apple is expensive for our wallets. Netflix can be expensive at time .

Twelve Silliest (and Most Dangerous) things People Say About Stock Prices by Peter Lynch

  If it’s gone down this much already, it can’t go much lower. You can always tell when a stock’s hit bottom. If it’s gone this high already, how can it possibly go higher? It’s only 10 Rs. a share: what can I lose? Eventually, the Share price always comes back. It’s always darkest before the dawn. When it rebounds to 100 Rs, I’ll sell. What do I worry about? conservative stocks don’t fluctuate much. It’s taking too long for anything to ever happen. Look at all the money I’ve lost: I didn’t buy it! I missed that one, I’ll catch the next one. The stock’s gone up, so I must be right, or... the stock’s gone down so I must be wrong.

Stock allocation Vs. stock picking

👉                                                                            It'  s from the Upanishads:  You are what your deep, driving desire is As your desire is, so is your will  As your will is, so is your deed As your deed is, so is your destiny  (Brihadaranyaka Upanishad)                   Your life becomes where your desire goes. The most important thing to building a portfolio is not stock picking but giving the right allocation. better put more time thinking about the right allocation than finding new stocks.                      When somebody tells you that I had made five-time money last year in one stock. but the problem is he had put only 1% of the portfolio so ...

Gold vs. stock market debate

Suppose you are in an ancient era. You are living a primitive man's life. You don't have a wheel or fire. Let's analyse two opinions. One is to start a business in which you conduct research, develop new products, and create something that you can use to make your life easier. second I will give you gold and sleep with that. which one do you choose?     Let's suppose you had invested in businesses (stock market) so they could create new products, and employment, and reduce poverty through new production. For example, suppose you first invested in Pidilite and they used your funds to build a new fevistick. so you can use it for bonding. Second, if you invest in ultra-tech cement, then they will build new plants and increase capacity. From that, we can build new houses which can be used by people to make life easier or more comfortable.    Assume you had made a gold investment. From that, you can build new ornaments which can be used on occasions. That's it. Now you...

What is the size of your fish in the pond?

Generally, people find valuation from the price of stock like reliance is cheap at 2400 and MRF is costly at 80000, let's assume that you little smarter than you are thinking about market cap(share Price * no. of shares) while smart people think over this like how much percent of your company to the entire industry. for example, currently, the market cap of titan is around 222k cr.  but only 5% of the whole jewelry industry. therefore, the size of the pond matters for your fish.       First of all, understand what type of combinations are there. 1) big pond big fish 2)big pond small fish 3)small pond big fish 4)small pond small fish. if you are smart then you can select a big pond and small fish but question yourself first like "is a pond right ?"  "is your fish will get the right food and nutrition at right time?"  is the water clear? and check if your pond is turgid? so I can say that this is a good option with risk.      As you are smart t...

P/E ratio

Price to earnings is an important ratio to look at for any share. normally share price = p/E * EPS( earnings per share= net profit/total number of shares). but think invert like Charlie Munger that where can we go wrong to look at only P/e for valuation.      The first point is Net profit which is easy to manipulate  therefore if management is not ethical then they will manipulate their profit by anything. for example they will reduce their share capital (share dilution) or take much debt for increasing profits." check share capital for last ten years and borrowing, ROE"       Secondly, when any company can benefit from any situation which is not for the long term but one quarter or year only. for example, oxygen companies benefited from a pandemic then suddenly earnings will go up and p/e look attractive or another reason behind that sector will not do well then value migration happens. for example, Castrol is a good company but when EV comes Castrol ...

Stock allocation Vs. stock picking

 👉  It's from the Upanishads:  You are what your deep, driving desire is As your desire is, so is your will  As your will is, so is your deed As your deed is, so is your destiny  (Brihadaranyaka Upanishad)  Your life becomes where your desire goes. The most important thing to building a portfolio is not stock picking but giving the right allocation. better put more time thinking about the right allocation than finding new stocks.        When somebody tells you that I had made five-time money last year in one stock. but the problem is he had put only 1% of the portfolio so the overall portfolio is not gain from this stock. right knowledge is important for your conviction and conviction is important for allocation. people find that fund managers have the right knowledge and conviction from starting point but that is a myth. here, I will tell you about how people build conviction about allocation over some time. what I do is:    ...

Renuka sugar

When I started investing I am always afraid to put my money in the Midcap and small-cap stocks. people say that these stocks are high Beta( high volatility) but when I listen to famous investors’ interviews and their holding I found that they have only that type of stock Investing is a competitive field where without having an edge you can not beat market. As investors we always competitive advantage over companies but forgot to find our competitive advantage. therefore, I started investing in small companies because mutual funds and big FII are mostly away from these companies.    First of all, I found the ethanol story where e big transformation happening because India is the highest importer of crude oil. i had read in Parag Parikh’s book that when the cycle goes in an uptrend market leader will do well but bottom companies who have large debt and low margins will go much higher than the market leader because they are capable to repay their debt and margins of small compani...

"MOAT"

In simple terms, MOAT means competitive advantage. When you are competing with others, you need some advantages over other people. For example, when you have a good book or mentor who doesn't have anyone for the exam. People always find mistaken moats. Moats like great products, strong market share, great execution, and great management. Let's analyse real moats for companies. 1) the cost of switching; 2) intangible assets  3) cost advantage 4) The network effect      C ommonly, switching bank accounts is mentally hectic . Normally, people don't want to switch their bank accounts very easily. It is the same when Infosys or TCS provide any service to the government or banks that is hard to switch. There is a switching cost for customers.      Patents, copyrights, and brand value, which is the biggest moat for pharmaceutical companies or any company which requires government permission to operate. like chemical plants. These are intangible assets....

Attention

If you ask me what is the most costly thing in today's world? you will find an answer like real estate, gold, etc. but I believe "attention" is the most costly thing in the world. the way marketing and advertising agency spend money for your attention are not surprising. world's largest companies like Google, Facebook, Twitter, Nestle, HUL, Coco cola earning money from your attention.      Attention is a scarce thing like time. we can not buy with money or anything else. your life follows where your attention goes. scientifically proven that day by day attention span is going down. for example, currently, the average attention span of people is only ten seconds. The reason behind that multitasking. scientific studies have proven that only 2% of the world is capable to do multitask.     Peter Bevelin said in All I Want to Know Where I am Going to Die, So I Will Not Go There is "Attention is a limited resource." Rapidly switching our attention between t...

"HALO EFFECT"

The halo effect is the tendency for positive impressions of a person, company, brand, or product in one area to positively influence one's opinion or feelings in other areas. The Halo effect is “the name given to the phenomenon whereby evaluators tend to be influenced by their previous judgments of performance or personality.” The halo effect which is a cognitive bias can prevent someone from accepting a person, a product, or a brand based on the idea of an unfounded belief on what is good or bad.        Generally, people always follow the herd as they want social proof(socially people recognize me or appreciate me). one of the great mental models by Nassim Nichols telab is alternative history(make some story after success). when interviewers ask why are you so successful then the person has some twaddle tendency ( person has to speak something), they will give you any emotional pitches by making alternative history. nobody knows that if they will follow that...

Happiness

There are many philosophies available around the world to live a happy life, like Buddhism, stoicism, Brahmakumari, Swaminarayan, etc. But here we will discuss practical philosophy, which enables us to become happy. Our happiness in life depends on mental health, physical health, and financial health. You can achieve your happiness with your physical health and mental health as a "monk". You can renounce sex, wealth, attachment, and luxuries, but in the modern world, this is not possible for everyone. Financial health liberates you from everything and allows you to spend time with the people you care about. has wisely said, "When you meet a prostitute, she prays to God for suffering and the world is striving for sex." When you meet people, they talk about the pleasure they get in the short term, which comes from food, organisms, gambling, etc. People don't differentiate between happiness and pleasure.      The first step towards your increasing happiness is that...

Heart vs. Mind

There is always a conflict between heart and mind. weather in a life partner, career, money spending, investing, etc. your heart is weak to make decisions. heart always follows short-term gratification which is mostly wrong. so here we can discuss the difference between them.       The brain changes continually as a result of our experiences. Experiences produce physical changes in the brain either through new neural connections or through the generation of new neurons. Studies suggest that the brain can change even during the day. This means that the anatomy of the brain varies from individual to individual. Even identical twins with identical genes don't have identical brains. They have had different life experiences. Experiences are the reason that all individuals are unique. There are no individuals with the same upbringing, nutrition, education, social stamping, physical, social and cultural setting. This creates different convictions, habits, values, an...

Globus spirit

 After some iterations I found that process behind picking the stock is important, therefore I found a screener where I will put some filters and I got some companies for research but don't know what type of screen works so for that I choose to follow one of the reputed magazine "wealth insight" from where I find a screen (market cap Less than 5k cr and earning yield double than bond yield) & follow them. what I did that pick companies’ annual reports so that I can understand their business models. I understand the manufacturing sites and production houses because I had done an internship there. globus spirit is part of my circle of competence.          I started reading about business by putting some skin in the game, therefore I always put 500- 1000 rs to start research. when I opened the investor presentation of globus spirit I am curious about their 360° business model and ongoing CAPEX for increasing ethanol capacity. they are earning from ...

GHCL

This is the stock I enter when I find a cheap valuation and the only company I understand because I had done internships in the chemical industry as a process engineer(circle of competence matter). GHCL has two main businesses: textiles and other basic chemicals(understanding business matters). Frankly, I didn't know that I will make that type of return within one and half years(process mattes). so what I learn is that your multibagger stock is your wonderful journey which I enjoyed with GHCL. people always want that type of return with magic, even if magic happens to you one time there is no guarantee that it will last in the future. let's understand some triggers behind this stock.         Now you can find me a genius but I seriously have odds in favor with some hard work. As Nassim Nicolas telab says fooled by randomness. there is always a process behind the purchase of the stock but I didn't. I purchased it because I found it cheap and some CAPEX hap...

Equity vs. Debt

It is irrefutable that equity and debt investments are well known in modern culture. I am not wrong if I say equity is much more popular nowadays. However, the question is what these terms are and how we can define them. I don't know what the book says, but I have some opinions.       When we need a solution to any problem, for that business is required. For a business, you need funds to run or start your business. For that, 1) obtain a bank loan (debt). 2) from your father or from anyone else who lends you money (equity). ney (equity). Research suggests that 90% of businesses fail within a year. The question now is why should we go for such a low probability?      We humans have evolved over time, and business adds value to our lives. The problem is that no one knows which business will create value for our society. Even the founder didn't know that he or she would become a billionaire. Therefore, we need to take a risk. Risk is not everyone's cup o...

Types of investing

 • Growth investing - Where free cash flow is mostly negative because the company reinvests cash into another business or expansion.( you can get multibagger)  • Value investing - Where free cash flow is compounded over a period of time. therefore, sustainability comes in bad times and profits grow at normal market returns. ( you can taste the power of compounding)  • Special situations   - When merger, demerger or any event like this happens.  • Commodities -  This is a cyclical business where we need to understand the cycle, Frist.  • Turnarounds - Where management change or any tailwind for a company or sector which need to understand.

"Handling Bad times is key"

Warren Buffett has said, "Charlie Munger has the best 30-second mind in the world." The most famous mental model of Charlie Munger is Invert, Always Invert. One of my favorite books by Peter Bevelin is "All I Want to Know Where I Am Going to Die, I Will no Go There " All these things suggest that handling bad situations in our lives is the easiest way to solve all problems. In your career, relationship, investing, and life, handling bad times will lead to good outcomes.       Currently, we are all facing a correction in the stock market. I always stay patient when a bad time comes in the market. Whenever a correction comes in the market, your success is defined by your patience and your research when the time was good. I believe how much you keep with you in corrections will give you success in the stock market.  salespeople or market experts tell us that the market is correct, and we should invest more. However, I believe that investing at a low valuation will pay ...